Introduction
Categorically, this conflict between Iran and Israel is one of the most intractable and complex geopolitical issues facing the Middle East. Though these two countries did not start a full-scale war to date, tensions do rise considerably over the past few decades. Their relationships have been tainted with proxy wars, covert operations, and even open hostilities. Both nations appear to have thoroughly conflicting ideological, political, and strategic interests that tend to flare up conflicts in other areas. This article is an attempt to provide an overview of the conflict, its causes, major parties involved, and the chance that the current crisis would turn into a war.
Historical Background: Origins of the Conflict
In order to really grasp why Iran and Israel are antagonistic toward one another, it is imperative to dig down into the roots of this conflict. In the decades prior to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the two countries had a relations which were mostly cooperative. Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran was one of the few Muslim-majority states in the world to recognize Israel’s existence, trading and even sharing intelligence with the Jewish state.
However, the 1979 revolution significantly altered Iran’s political structure. The leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, founded an Islamic Republic that theoretically opposed Zionism and termed Israel an enemy state. The government of Khomeini advocated for the liberation of Palestine and was openly supportive of movements like Hezbollah and Hamas against the state of Israel. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s leadership has always been seeking Israel’s destruction.
Ideological and Religious Issues
Ideologically and religiously, the Iran-Israel conflict falls squarely in the bipolarity of two opposing camps. Iran-the country holds a majority of Shiites-would see itself as a champion of the Muslim world at large, with special emphasis on the Western influences and Zionism. Israel, largely a Jewishmajority state would be seen as the Western outpost in the Middle East by the Iranian regime.
This ideological clash is further heightened by religious characteristics. Iran has its proxy forces and militias everywhere in the region, including the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon and a variety of militia groups in Syria and Iraq. These groups have been instrumental in thwarting Israeli interests so hate only persists.
Nuclear aspiration for Iran becomes one of the key issues in this war between this country and Israel.
Iran’s nuclear project happens to be one of the core disputable elements of the Iran-Israel conflict. The nuclear programme in Iran poses an existential threat to Israel as the latter will be placed in peril by the former’s going nuclear. The possibility of Iran’s nuclear capability has resulted in Israel taking a policy of pre-emptive strikes and intelligence operations aimed at frustrating Iran’s nuclear capacity. It is alleged that Israel has been involved in covert operations such as the killing of nuclear scientists in Iran and cyber-attacks meant to roll back Iran’s nuclear energy capabilities.
Iran, however, maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, especially energy production. The West and Israel, though, have been skeptical of the goal, saying that Iran’s enrichment activities are beyond any civilian nuclear power that they would need to operate. The Iran nuclear deal, also referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 2015, had temporarily pacified the piled-up tension by setting a cap on Iranian nuclear activities. However, the agreement was opposed by Israel since it was too lenient to impose any serious check on Iran’s ambition. Now the US is out of this deal that President Trump has withdrawn in 2018. Iran in phases rolled back its commitments, and so again finds itself on that tangent towards the dreaded nuclear conflict.
Proxy Wars: The Battlegrounds Beyond Borders
Although Iran and Israel do not directly engage in a conventional war, much of their conflict evolves through proxy battles on other lands, mostly Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. One of the key issues of discord between Iran and Israel has been Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, a militant Shiite group that has fought numerous wars against Israel, the last being the Lebanon War in 2006. Iran is providing them with financial and military support, while the group has also been acquiring more weapons including long-range missiles.
In Syria, it has been a hundred sorts of airstrikes, and this is against Iranian military spots and convoys while trying to forestall Iran from acquiring a permanent military foothold near Golan. This co-signing by Iran in the Syrian Civil War in favour of Assad regime has been an opportunity for Iran to gain greater influence and acquire a land corridor that runs from Tehran to the Mediterranean, and it’s been another warning for Israel.
It also operates in Iraq, where with similar weapons, it is competing with Iran. Though Iran has established strategic ties with several Shiite militias, some of them have targeted the U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. Such militias are identified as a spin-off of Revolutionary Guard. Israel has been accused to target them in several attacks.
Economic Warfare and Cyber Attacks
Apart from the old-fashioned military confrontation, there have emerged newly brewed new tools of economic sanctions and cyber warfare between Iran and Israel. And though passively sitting by and watching it all happen, Israel has collaborated with the United States in changing the international fronts to play a pivotal role as their strongest votary in imposing sanctions on Iran, particularly against its oil industries and the country’s financial institutions. And indeed these sanctions have strangled its economy too, which has been very much helping in revving up the tension.
The other domain of the conflict is cyber warfare. The Stuxnet virus is yet another of the advanced cyberattacks that have been cited to have been secretly developed by the U.S. and Israel in Iran’s nuclear centrifuges, thus turning back Iran’s nuclear program on its heels. Both sides continue laying charges against each other for launching cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, thereby opening yet another front in the conflict.
Change for a Direct War
This is what makes already seething conflict so crucial if it contains all-out war between two nations. There are two possible ingredients that could trigger direct military hostilities between Iran and Israel: former nuclear activities or those of Hezbollah with missile capacity, and retaliatory strikes by the latter. Other regional and global powers like the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia add to the complex mix of alliances and rivalries.
The conflict between Iran and Israel would wreak havoc not only across the Middle East but also farther afield, since a direct conflict had potential to drag in a multitude of countries and engulf the entire region into full-scale war, disrupting oil supplies throughout the entire world-a huge blow to the global economy. Iran’s military capability lies in its vast network of militias and missile arsenal, whereas Israel boasts air superiority, complemented by very well-developed missile defense systems.
Diplomatic Gambits and the Road to Peace
Even as the rhetorical sparring continues, diplomatic initiatives to ease tensions continue unabated. Several Arab states-the UAE and Bahrain among them-now have normalized ties with Israel under a US-brokered agreement known as the Abraham Accords. The accords themselves bear no direct relation to Iran’s interests but reflect instead broader trends within the region as many other Arab states choose to counter-balance Iran’s sway over the Palestinian struggle.
For Iran and Israel, however, the holy grail seems to be diplomacy. The Biden administration has been looking for an excuse to extricate itself from the JCPOA, but the talks have gone cold, and Israel will never endorse any deal that lets Iran retain its nuclear infrastructure. At bottom, though, both countries would have to address their core security concerns, scale back their regional ambitions, and undertake confidence-building measures. But for this to come about, it seems unlikely in the short-run with deep ideological and strategic rivalry between the two.
Conclusion
The Iran-Israel Conflict is such an old, complicated issue of ideological, religious, nuclear ambitions, and balance of power issues. Since neither side has been able to engage in a direct conflict with the other thus far, almost too much remains a real possibility in ongoing proxy wars, covert operations, and increased rhetoric. The changing contours of the geography of the Middle East will actually require an active role by the international community to thwart further escalations and promote dialogue between these two adversaries. Indeed, peace is far; it is worth striving for, though, with regard to the stability of the region and the world at large.
